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Ibrahim Gambari (R) speaking with Aung San Suu Kyi
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UN visit shows momentum slipping on Myanmar: analysts

14 hours ago

UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari's seeming failure to press the Myanmar junta toward reform has underlined the loss in diplomatic momentum since last year's bloody crackdown on protests, analysts say.

Gambari arrived in Myanmar last Thursday hoping to persuade the regime to include detained democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi in plans for a constitutional referendum in May designed to pave the way for elections in 2010.

But with support from regional allies such as China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the generals have pressed on with a "roadmap to democracy" that the West has decried as a sham.

"What the Burmese military has done is what the Chinese and ASEAN and even the Indians wanted to see in Burma -- the continuation of the roadmap, and for the first time in 20 years there is a timeframe," said Thailand-based Myanmar expert Aung Naing Oo, referring to the nation by its former name.

Gambari left Myanmar late Monday having twice been rebuffed by the junta on his third visit there since pictures of last September's violent crackdown on Buddhist monk-led street protests went around the world.

The generals refused to amend the constitution and rejected an offer of UN technical assistance and foreign observers during the referendum.

At least 31 people died last September, according to the United Nations, although Human Rights Watch has put the toll at more than 100, and the world outcry was swift and unified -- a consensus that has since fractured.

While China, Russia and some Southeast Asian nations call the referendum a step in the right direction, the United States and other Western countries say it aims to entrench the military's role.

The constitution would bar Aung San Suu Kyi from elections because she was married to a foreigner, while a new law limits her party's ability to campaign by criminalising public speeches and leaflets about the referendum.

Aung Naing Oo said the split has left Myanmar holding all the cards, with the United Nations empty-handed.

"I honestly don't have any hope in the UN's intervention," he added. "The Burmese junta know they have the Chinese protecting them at the UN Security Council."

The apparent snubs to Gambari, who was also accused on this visit of being biased in favour of the opposition, also show the junta is increasingly immune to the fickle demands of the international community, said Zarni, a visiting fellow at Britain's Oxford University who goes by one name.

"The last thing the regime would want to do is appear to be appeasing the international community, be it the Chinese or the Americans," he told AFP.

"These guys draw inspirations from such regimes as Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, North Korea etc, which stand up to what they all consider as 'neo-imperialist' West."

Gambari did, however, meet Aung San Suu Kyi twice during his visit, a rare contact with the outside world for the Nobel peace prize winner who has spent 12 of the last 18 years under house arrest.

Aung San Suu Kyi led her National League for Democracy party to a storming election victory in 1990, but the military -- which has ruled Myanmar in some form since 1962 -- refused to recognise the result.

But the envoy was denied access to senior junta figures, with junta leader Senior General Than Shwe inaccessible in the isolated capital Naypyidaw.

Win Min, a Thailand-based analyst attached to Chiang Mai University, said the only way to bring genuine democratic reform to Myanmar was for the United Nations Security Council to take harsh action unanimously.

"Only then the regime will listen," he told AFP.

However, he said, Myanmar was no longer top of the world's agenda.

The West's sanctions were simply angering the regime without affecting the top leadership, he added, while China was not keen on forcing Myanmar on to a path to democracy that they themselves did not follow.

"The only silver lining in all this is the regime is not declaring this UN engagement process, whatever it's worth, dead or unwelcome," he said.
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Myanmar citizens with foreign husbands barred from domestic politics

Myanmar citizens with foreign husbands barred from domestic politics

By S. Ramesh, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 20 February 2008 0220 hrs

	Myanmar's Foreign Minister Nyan Win

SINGAPORE : Myanmar citizens who have a foreign husband and whose children are not Myanmar nationals cannot take part in domestic politics.

This is the regulation stipulated by the country's new Constitution.

Myanmar's Foreign Minister Nyan Win gave this update when he briefed ASEAN foreign ministers at their retreat in Singapore on Tuesday, according to Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo who spoke to the media.

Mr Yeo was responding to a question on whether the Myanmar minister had given any indication if opposition leader Aung Syan Syu Kyi can take take part in the country's elections which is slated to be held in 2010.

According to Mr Nyan Win, this eligibility criteria has been around since 1974 and would be carried forward in the new Constitution.

Mr Yeo said "We (the ASEAN Foreign Ministers) expressed our views on this. It is not keeping with the times that certainly such a provision would be very odd in any other country in ASEAN. But this is their own country, this is their own history, what can we do about it?"

Separately, ASEAN's Foreign Ministers attending the informal retreat are due to spend the greater part of Wednesday discussing how members are implementing the ASEAN Charter.

Mr George Yeo, who is currently the ASEAN's Chair said, before getting down to discussions, Malaysia, Laos and Brunei will hand over documents to the ASEAN Secretary-General as their respective countries had completed ratifying the ASEAN Charter.

This brings the number of ASEAN member countries who have ratified the Charter to four, including Singapore.

Singapore was the first to hand over the documents to the new Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan in Jakarta.

Observers say a top priority for ASEAN now is to set up a dispute settlement mechanism, as spelt out in the Charter.

Such a mechanism already exists to deal with disputes in the economic arena.

Another aspect of the Charter that has drawn much interest is the ASEAN Human Rights Body.

The terms of reference for this body has to be worked out and there's a committee looking into this matter.

All ASEAN Foreign Ministers are attending the two-day retreat in Singapore, except Malaysia's Syed Hamid Albar.

He is busy with preparations for the upcoming general elections.

Mr Syed Hamid is represented by the Secretary-General of Malaysia's Foreign Affairs Ministry. - CNA/de

Myanmar juna schedules constitutional referendum for 2008

THE STRAITS TIMES

Feb 9, 2008
Myanmar junta schedules constitutional referendum for 2008
YANGON - MYANMAR'S military government announced on Saturday that it will hold a constitutional referendum in May 2008 and a general election in 2010. The announcement, made on the evening news on state radio and television, marked the first time the ruling junta has set specific dates to carry out stages of what it calls a road map to democracy. Guidelines for a new constitution were adopted last year, and a government-appointed commission is now drafting the document. Myanmar has been under military rule since 1962 and has not had a constitution since 1988, when the military violently suppressed mass pro-democracy demonstrations. The country's last election was held in 1990, but the military refused to hand over power to the winner, the National League for Democracy party of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. Suu Kyi's party 'surprised' by junta's promise of elections Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition party was 'surprised' by the announcement of plans for a constitutional referendum and then democratic polls in Myanmar, saying it was 'still early to talk about an election'. 'I am surprised that they set a date for an election,' said Mr Nyan Win, spokesman for the National League for Democracy (NLD). He said that it was premature to plan for national elections when no one has seen the final version of Myanmar's proposed constitution, which the junta announced would be brought to voters for approval in May. 'We have to see the results of the referendum on the constitution. How can they know if it will be a success? It is still early to talk about an election.' -- AP, AFP